7th July 2020

Distribution Selection in Risk Models, and the Use of Triangular versus PERT Distributions

One frequent question that users of Monte Carlo methods (such as with @RISK) often have is whether they should use a Triangular or a PERT distribution […]
14th June 2020
cert-blog

Advanced Certificate – Integrated Course Topics and Learning Objectives

A full list of topics for the 10-day integrated course can be seen here:
9th June 2020

Some Challenges in Using IRR in Decision Support

The use of the internal rate of return in decision-making can be rather subtle and may even be misleading. At the simplest level, one often hears […]
10th April 2020

Using Optimisation to Calibrate Models: COVID-19 Example

The COVID-19 outbreak provides a reminder of possible uses of optimisation tools for model calibration. Recall that where the values of a model input(s) are not […]
10th February 2019

Six Reasons to Avoid Using VLOOKUP and HLOOKUP Functions

It never ceases to amaze me when I open an Excel worksheet and see VLOOKUP or HLOOKUP functions. These functions should basically never be used! In […]
17th May 2012

Implementing a Between Query with SUMIFS or DSUM

When working with a database or dataset in Excel, often one wants to query the data set for values that are within a specific range. For […]
12th March 2011

Flexible Model Input Ranges using INDIRECT and ADDRESS

A frequent issue that arises in Excel modelling is how to change the input values to a model whilst retaining the integrity of the model’s calculations. […]
20th May 2010

The Stability of Sensitivity Coefficients in Simulation Models

One frequent observation when reviewing the results of simulation models is that the sensitivity coefficients seem to change if one reruns a simulation, and in some […]
18th May 2010

Biases in Estimating Probabilities and Prevalence from Data (II)

In order to provide some intuition as to why small sample sizes may lead one to underestimate the frequency of low probability events (when using a […]