14th April 2020

Why Making Good Decisions is Hard

It is worth recapping why the making of good decisions is hard. In the following, I have brought together ideas from various sources and documents and […]
14th November 2018

The Role of Risk Assessment in Decision Quality

I had the pleasure of attending The Decision Quality Conference 2018 in London last week. This provided a good reminder of some of the close linkages […]
13th November 2018

Are Risk Register Heat Maps a Waste of Time?

Some commentators on risk assessment consider that “heat maps” are a waste of time. This posting discusses some of their advantages and disadvantages. A much more […]
23rd November 2017

Benefits of Using Uncertainty and Risk-Based Approaches in Forecasting

Despite the fact that the world is uncertain, this is often overlooked in forecasting activities which most often rely on a single case or a small […]
3rd October 2017

Economic and Financial Evaluation of Oil and Gas Projects under Uncertainty: Recent Activities in Vietnam

Recently I had the pleasure to visit Hanoi, Vietnam, to run a course on the economic evaluation of projects, taking into account the risks and uncertainties […]
25th September 2017

How to Account for Cash Flow Risk when Doing Valuation?

Core economic and financial theory states that it is the average (mean or Expected Value) of the cash flows that should be discounted at a rate […]
27th June 2016

Overcoming Organisational Challenges when Introducing Risk Modelling into Decision Support

The blog presents a few ideas on how to overcome (or at least reduce) some of the main organisational challenges to introducing risk modelling, as discussed […]
1st April 2016

Organisational Challenges when Introducing Risk Modelling into Decision Support

The introduction of quantitative risk analysis (particularly full uncertainty models) poses a large range of organisational challenges. This post discusses a number of these, whilst a […]
25th March 2016

Common Mistakes in Valuation Modelling

Valuation is generally regarded as a mixture of a science and an art: Whilst, generally speaking, fairly well established financial theory can be used as the […]