CinFM Blog

7th July 2020

Distribution Selection in Risk Models, and the Use of Triangular versus PERT Distributions

One frequent question that users of Monte Carlo methods (such as with @RISK) often have is whether they should use a Triangular or a PERT distribution […]
14th June 2020

Advanced Certificate – Integrated Course Topics and Learning Objectives

A full list of topics for the 10-day integrated course can be seen here: [pdf-embedder url=””]
9th June 2020

Some Challenges in Using IRR in Decision Support

The use of the internal rate of return in decision-making can be rather subtle and may even be misleading. At the simplest level, one often hears […]
14th April 2020

Why Making Good Decisions is Hard

It is worth recapping why the making of good decisions is hard. In the following, I have brought together ideas from various sources and documents and […]
10th April 2020

Using Optimisation to Calibrate Models: COVID-19 Example

The COVID-19 outbreak provides a reminder of possible uses of optimisation tools for model calibration. Recall that where the values of a model input(s) are not […]
8th April 2020

Interest Rate in the PMT and Similar Functions

I have previously posted about the need to be very careful when using the PMT and similar functions, as mistakes can easily arise. One area of […]
30th March 2020

When is a Model not a Model?

Many Excel worksheets are described as “models”. Sometimes (more often than not), the calculations are very hard to follow for someone who did not built the […]
28th March 2020

Major Update of Website for the Certificate in Financial Modelling and Data Analysis

We have now nearly finished the web-site for the Certificate in Financial Modelling and Data Analysis. It has been quite a slow process, bring together the […]
2nd December 2019

What Are Real Options and Why are They Hard to Value?

The term “Real Option” refers to an additional decision possibility that is created in any real-life situation if one extends the scope of permitted decision alternatives. […]